Pool

The pool has been reopened and is fully operational (crystal clear too) after the Hurricane last week.

Enjoy. 

Vote Now

Island Gate elections are going on now. Up for election are two board members. We on the board of Island Gate strongly encourage every member of the community to vote for the board. Please take the time to vote for board members.

Island Gate fared well in the hurricane

For those of us who weren’t at Island Gate this weekend for the storm, there is good news.  We made it through in pretty good shape.  There is some minor damage reported and some branches and leaves down but no major flooding or catastrophic damage to the community. 

Considering the eye of the storm came ashore just 10 miles south of Island Gate our homes did very well.  It is a testament to the quality of construction of the community. 

If you do have any damage to your home, please call AA and inform them of it.  We will make every effort to have it taken care of as quickly as possible. 

HURRICANE FORECAST UPDATE AT 5PM

Current: Hurricane Irene is a category two storm – sustained winds at 100mph.  It’s eyewall is not well-defined – likely a result of strong wind shear.  This could inhibit any future significant intensification.

Short-term Forecast: Irene is on a track mostly north to north-northeast.  The Outer Banks are still expected to experience landfall Saturday afternoon.  Intensification over the next 24 hours will be limited – could slightly with the warm ocean temperatures – but could also weaken slightly with the wind shear and lack of an eyewall.  Most likely, intensification will change little prior to landfall tomorrow.

Timing/Track: Timing is slightly faster than yesterday’s forecast (as mentioned in this morning’s update).  Early-afternoon Saturday landfall over NC.  Early Sunday morning, the center of Irene should be very near Cape May, NJ.  By late-morning (9AM-noon), it should be on a latitude equal to that of Philadelphia.  The Jersey Shore continues to be the most likely to experience direct landfall – and it will move north along the entire shoreline.  Sunday afternoon brings Irene to NYC/Long Island/CT/RI region.

Track/Intensity: As mentioned in the opening statement in red, at the top, the intensity of Irene has a good chance of being limited moving forward.  It will likely be a category 1 or 2 as it makes landfall in NC tomorrow – and likely less than a category two with the second landfall Sunday in the NJ/DE/MD region (could be a category one or strong tropical storm – only slight chance of category two).  Regardless of the intensity, Irene is still a massive hurricane (compare its size with the state of Pennsylvania, on the map above).  This hurricane will still impact a large section of the Northeast this weekend.

Impacts/Precipitation:  Model projections of precipitation totals are generally not as much as yesterday’s forecast.  This may be under-forecasting it a bit – as the storm is still massive (regardless of the slight weakening).  There have been tropical storms that produced more rain than the GFS model prediction, as seen on the image below.  The weakening intensity (or lack to strengthening further) is more of a concern with reduced winds than reduced rainfall.  I still believe you’ll find 10+” (maybe not widespread) over NJ – and high tide will add to the flooding issues.  8-10” will be common over NJ.  Philadelphia will fall in the 6-9” range – as will coastal MD and the Delaware Beaches.  Western PHL suburbs will experience 3-6” commonly – with some 4-8” totals possible.  4-8” over Newcastle County, DE.  The Susquehanna  Basin will record mostly 1-4” totals.  Lancaster County and surrounding regions, 2-5”.

Precipitation projection (lighter blue – over South Jersey is 6-8”, dark blue – over PHL is 4-6”):

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is a bit more bullish (8-10” in yellow – including Philadelphia).

Impacts/Wind: Peak sustained winds of 100mph at this time.  Not expected to increase significantly (but not completely ruled out) this weekend.  May weaken more after it crosses NC tomorrow.  National Hurricane Center wind forecast is between 85 and 100mph sustained as it moves into the PA/NJ/DE/MD region Sunday AM (closer to 85mph).  Strongest winds along the coast – but mostly between 60-80mph sustained – max gust potential 100mph, but mostly 80-90mph tops.  Inland, winds will be more commonly in the 40-60mph range sustained east (gusts to 75) and 25-40mph range west (gusts to 60).

Impacts/Storm Surge: Storm surge will be a tremendous concern – especially north and east.  Remember, this event will be occurring during high tide.  That adds several feet of water to the potential storm surge ahead of Irene (generally north and east of the center).  NJ up toward Manhattan, Long Island, Rhode Island all will likely have some serious concerns with potential inundation of high levels of water Sunday.  Waves of 10-15ft in some places are possible. 

Additional Thoughts:  There are stronger winds (125mph) reported aloft within the hurricane.  However, these winds have been unable to mix downward (again, a factor of the wind shear).  This does suggest there still may be some potential – even if small – for further intensification.  But for the most part, I’m downplaying this idea.  True, the winds may be more limited in strength as a result; but flooding rains will likely still be a major factor Sunday.  The flooding issues/concerns are the same.  It’s been a record-breaking month for rain.  The ground is saturated.  Coastal concerns come with the fact that it’s also high tide.  Rainfall amounts will likely average 4-8” across the region with some higher amounts.  Storm surge  -- with a storm this big (some characteristics more common with a major hurricane than a category one or two) will still be an issue – but mainly well north (NYC, Long Island, Rhode Island).  It’s likely best not to overreact to this reduced intensity.  There still is time for minor adjustments to this forecast – but in some cases, an inch or two of rain… 10-15mph… or 50 miles can be significant. 

LATEST IRENE FORECAST 6 PM EDST

This forecast is still likely to require some mostly minor adjustments – but the changes are less likely to be large from this point forward.  Very good computer model agreement (for a hurricane 2-3 days in advance) is increasing confidence.

Current: Hurricane Irene continues at category three strength – sustained winds at 115mph.  It’s currently centered over the northern Bahamas.

Short-term Forecast: Irene will shift more to the north over the next 24 hours.  It is also expected to increase in intensity – likely a category 4 before Friday AM.

Timing/Track: No change to the timing from previous discussions.  Begin to see bands of showers/thunderstorms Saturday daytime hours in PA/NJ/Eastern MD/DE (overnight Friday/early AM Saturday south).  (There could even be some pop up isolated storms tomorrow PM as the front moving through today interacts with the leading bands from Irene.)  The steadier, heavier rain will arrive Saturday night, increasing from south to north.  The eye of Hurricane Irene will likely pass along the latitude of southern DE early Sunday morning then along the latitude of Cape May, NJ around or just before noon on Sunday – then approaching Long Island’s latitude Sunday evening (mentioning the word “latitude” as there’s still a potential of a 50-100mi shift east or west for Irene – but that range is narrowing). 

Track/Intensity: NC continues to be most likely to experience landfall (first?) in the U.S. (a greater than 50% likelihood for landfall in NC).  This will occur during the daytime hours on Saturday.  Should Irene track just west of the Outer Banks (over the mainland), that will likely act to weaken Irene, and reduce some of its impact in the Northeast.  However, it mostly skirts over the Outer Banks only (or just offshore), intensity loss will be minimal.  That’s the ideal path to maintain intensity while maintaining a path that takes it into the high population centers of the Northeast.  A track far enough offshore of the Outer Banks could limit the impact in PA/NJ/DE/MD/NY, but pose a greater threat to coastal New England (this is the least likely track).  Model agreement is very good – within 40mi of the Jersey Shore on almost every major model.  Irene is very unlikely to be a “swing and a miss” storm that shifts harmlessly out to sea.  As Irene approaches South Jersey early Sunday, it will likely be no less than category one in strength (74-95mph sustained winds).  Should its track across NC be minimal, it could easily be category two (sustained winds 96-110).  A track over a larger portion of NC could reduce it to a strong tropical storm – but that’s unlikely.  Also unlikely (but not impossible) would be category three hurricane (111-130mph). 

Impacts/Precipitation:  The best bet for significant impact is the Jersey Shore.  It is the midpoint of the computer models (and has been close to the midpoint throughout this week – more so than any one region).   Irene will be large enough to affect a very large geographic region – and it’s highly unlikely that anyone in eastern PA/eastern MD/DE/NJ and on up to eastern NY and New England is left out.  The concerns over Philadelphia (and even into the western suburbs) have grown during the past 24 hours.  This will likely be an area of substantial precipitation – with the possibility that a track farther west brings the heaviest band of rain to this region.  Regardless, 4-8” of rain will likely be widespread and common over NJ.  Some 8-12” amounts are possible.  Philadelphia, Delaware, Coastal MD should see 4-6” on the low end – 8-12” on the high.  Western PA suburbs into Lancaster, Berks Counties, 2-4” low, 4-8” high.  NYC should see similar to the PHL/NJ totals.  (No, these are not snowfall accumulations – though the numbers are more commonly associated with snow!)  This is a bit early to post these rainfall projections with high confidence, but it’s a very reasonable expectation given the growing confidence of the track.  Amounts may vary by 2-4” depending on the track – but there isn’t a debate if it’s going to be 0-1” or 10-12”. 

Impacts/Wind: Again, a lot depends on how much intensity Irene holds going across NC.  Also, a lot will depend if the hurricane moves inland over NJ (or west) or stays just offshore.  At this point, widespread 50-80mph winds along the Jersey Shore is very reasonable.  There is potential for stronger.  West/inland, 30-50mph winds will be more common (with higher gusts).  Wind projections are more difficult with Irene at this time – and track will dictate the strongest wind speeds (as well as the other factors mentioned above).    

Impacts/Storm Surge: Storm surge will be a tremendous concern – especially north and east.  Remember, this event will be occurring during high tide.  That adds several feet of water to the potential storm surge ahead of Irene (generally north and east of the center).  NJ up toward Manhattan, Long Island, Rhode Island all will likely have some serious concerns with potential inundation of high levels of water Sunday.  Waves of 10-15ft in some places are possible. 

Additional Thoughts:  At this point, it appears slightly more likely that Irene will track more west before it would shift back east.  In other words, if it’s not along the Jersey Shore, it’s interior NJ or even close to PHL.  That’s not a slam dunk at this point – but it is the lean.  This would also shift the band of heaviest rain west (and not mentioned previously, but the initial track would bring 2-4” of rain to the Susquehanna Basin – this would suggest 4-6” possible).  The wind will be a concern over all of the PHL metro – but it would be less than if it stayed offshore. 

HURRICANE IRENE AND THE POOL

Pool furniture will be removed from the pool area on Friday and Saturday and stored in the bathrooms.  This will cause the closure of the bathrooms as a result.  The pool will be opened on Friday at the usual time and opened until rain and wind begin Saturday.  The pool will be closed for the duration of the hurricane.  IT will be reopened when the pool condition is completely remediated. 

HURRICANE IRENE WARNING

As Hurricane Irene approaches our area, we wanted to make sure you aware of the steps you can take to stay safe as the storm approaches.
 

• Create a disaster plan. Plan an evacuation route in advance and determine where you would go if you were told to evacuate.
• Prepare a survival kit. Stock up on drinking water, non-perishable goods, a first-aid kit and medicine for everyone including your pet. Include extra clothing, blankets, batteries, flashlights and a portable radio.  FILL YOUR CAR UP WITH GASOLINE
• Conduct a home hazard hunt and make your home as safe as possible. Secure all outdoor objects such as garbage cans and lawn furniture.
• Review how to shut off utilities in an emergency with all family members.
• Locate important papers and documents and have them ready to take with you should you need to evacuate. Protect documents in plastic storage bags if you're remaining in your home.
• Make sure you have insurance policies with claim contact information, an inventory of your home’s contents and cash.
• Ask an out-of-state friend to be your family contact. After a disaster, it's often easier to call long-distance than to make a local call.
• Finally, leave promptly when ordered to evacuate. Leaving too late or not leaving at all only endangers yourself and others.

IN ADDITION PLEASE REMOVE ALL EXTERIOR ITEMS AND SECURE THEM IN YOUR HOME.  IF YOU DONT LIVE IN ISLAND GATE FULL TIME YOU STILL NEED TO TAKE CARE OF THIS.  NOT BEING THERE DOESNT MEAN YOU ARE NOT REPSONSBLE.  YOU WILL BE HELD RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMAGE YOUR UNSECURED PROPERTY DOES. 

IF YOU SEE SOMETHING DANGEROUS OUTDOORS CALL AA OR A BOARD MEMBER AND LET THEM KNOW WHAT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN CARE OF.  DO IT NOW BEFORE THE STORM!!!!

IF THERE IS FLODDING YOU MAY WANT TO CONSIDER REMOVING VALUABLES FROM THE BASEMENT AND GARAGE AREA

HURRICANE: THIS IS SERIOUS

Our latest weather reports indicate that it's almost impossible that the hurricane doesn’t hit the Jersey Shore, this weekend.  There is a very high probability that Sat pm/early Sun am the storm hits with 5 to 10 inches of rain 60 to 80 mph of wind on the low side and a good chance for sustained winds of over 100 mph.  The rain and wind ranges depend on if the storm hits the outer banks first and if the center of the storm heads right over the Jersey shore or is 30 or so miles off shore.  This storm is more than speculation or a possibility, with the only variables being how much rain, how much storm surge and how much destruction. 

During the storm the pool will be closed and outdoor furniture removed, we are sorry for the inconvenience but the community's safety is paramount. 

We urge you do the same and to take every precaution to be safe.  In addition, please secure your exterior items.  We will post future updates as they become available

HURRICANE

Dear Homeowners,
 
With reports of an impending category 2 or higher hurricane arriving in our area this coming Saturday and Sunday, the Board requests, as a precaution, that all homeowners place deck furniture and other small objects inside your unit, as winds of 100 mph or more can uplift these items and turn these items in projectiles capable of causing significant damage.  
 
Please note it is the responsibility and liability of each homeowner to ensure that all items are stored and secured properly, to minimize any potential damage that this storm may cause.

Thanks in advance for your cooperation.
 
 

Pool Rules

As sad as it is to say, summer is more than half over. Knock on wood the summer has been sunny and hot and the pool has performed well. We wanted to remind you That the pool rules are posted at the pool entrance, by the rest rooms and also on this blog. Please read the and become familiar with them. In addition, we wanted to remind you of a few rules we believe need to be emphasized

1) No diving in the pool, this is a shallow pool and you will be hurt

2) No rough or aggressive play or actions at the pool

3) Please do not let anyone in the pool area without a pass. This may seem rude or impolite but AA and the board have received numerous calls about people who don't belong in the pool and were allowed admittance by over kind neighbors. Please don't let anyone in without a pass.

4) Finally and of course; No Smoking at the pool.

Thank you and enjoy the rest of the summer.

Next board meeting August 13th 6pm at the pool

Just a reminder the next open board meeting for the community will be on Saturday August 13th at 6 pm at the pool. The board will affirm recent contracts, formally vote on recent decisions and open the floor up for community comment. There will also be a financial update on how we are performing against our budget over the first half of the year. The second pool meeting is the result of a commitment our current board has made to improve communication with our community. Please try to attend, we look forward to seeing you there.

In addition, there is our annual election meeting which is being held on September 9th at 7:30 at Stafford town hall and a budget review meeting currently planned for January 20th 2012.