Recent aircraft data indicate
that Joaquin has become a hurricane with 75 mph winds. Joaquin is drifting SW
and that motion will continue into tomorrow before a turn to the west, then
north will occur Thursday into Friday. The atmosphere and water temperatures
are conducive for strengthening and Joaquin should become a category 2 to 3
over the next 24-48 hours.
The impacts on the Mid
Atlantic are to come in two parts.
1)
A storm is going
to form over the Southeast later this week which will bring extremely heavy
rain to the Mid Atlantic area and I-95 corridor from DC to Philadelphia
beginning Thursday night and continuing through Friday. Rain amounts will be in
the 4-8 inch category with locally higher amounts. Winds will average 20-35 mph
with higher gusts, especially closer to the coast. This 1st part is
separate from Joaquin, and will create flooding issues and some power outages
across the region Friday.
2)
Joaquin will be
moving north Friday. The issue is whether or not the storm that forms over the
Southeast will capture hurricane Joaquin and pull the storm into the Mid
Atlantic coast later this weekend. Although internally we are leaning
into this idea, it is far from certain. This scenario is shown by the
hurricane models, as well as the American and Canadian operational models. The
European model keeps the storm separate and well offshore – which is a
non-factor for the region. If the storm combines and directly impacts the Mid
Atlantic area Sunday into Monday, hurricane force winds would spread inland
along with another round of extremely heavy rain. Severe damage, flooding and
widespread power outages would result. Once the storm turns north later
tomorrow or Friday we should have a better idea of risks associated with
hurricane Joaquin. However, at this time scenario number 2 still carries a high
degree of uncertainty.
