tropical storm warning

Overnight the storm (depression 11) has strengthened just slightly to become tropical storm Joaquin. There is still a decent amount of shear over the storm this morning, which is affecting its ability to strengthen. Its movement has been erratic in the past 24 hours, mainly moving Southwest. A turn to the north is gradually expected over the next day or two. The storm is likely to come up on the East side of the NHC forecast track later this week. During this time, while over warm water, the shear is forecast to relax and may allow strengthening. There is the possibility that Joaquin strengthens into a hurricane later this week.

 

The second part of the equation is how far north Joaquin will get before it interacts with a cold front near the east coast. Some of the models show the storm becoming embedded in the flow moving north, while others hook the storm back to the West for a hit on the Mid Atlantic or Northeast coast this weekend. It is way too early to speculate on the end game track. The main threat at this time is a prolonged period of heavy rain and wind producing urban and small stream flooding along I-95, and coastal and back bay flooding due to persistent strong East to Southeast winds. It is important to monitor the storm for the latest developments

more to come