The combination of an upper level low over the Ohio Valley, very warm and humid conditions in place and decent wind shear values leads to an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon across the region from D.C. / Baltimore to New York City and surrounding areas.
If there is enough sunshine and temperatures get to expected highs (near 90), this will provide the energy for strong wind gusts and isolated large hail. Although the tornado risk is low, one can’t be ruled out. Storms are most likely in Baltimore and DC between 4 and 7 pm and in Philly to New York between 6 and 9 pm. Storms will generally be moving eastward at 30-40 mph. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes are expected with these storms. The NWS severe storms forecast center will likely issue a severe thunderstorm watch for the area later this afternoon.
