Hurricane Sandy crossed Cuba last night as a category 2 storm (winds in excess of 100mph). Sandy is still a category 2 storm, moving north at 18 mph. Sandy’s exact track is still uncertain, but it is becoming more likely that a major impact is going to occur in the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston and along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast. The most likely scenario brings Sandy inland somewhere between Ocean City, MD and Long Island, New York during Monday, with rain and wind moving up the coast Sunday and lingering into at least Tuesday.
A southern track, into the Delmarva, would mean a severe impact to the Baltimore area with a storm surge in the harbor. A farther north track puts the worst conditions into New Jersey, NYC and Long Island. Either way, the storm is likely to have a very broad wind field and the slow movement of the storm into the Northeast will mean a sustained period of both wind and flooding rain in and around the big cities. This would bring a substantial amount of power outages to Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, New York, and New England, along with 6-14 inches of rain.
There is still a slight possibility that the storm does not combine with jet stream energy moving into the East and instead stays offshore which would mean the impacts are much farther north in northern New England. The American model still shows this outcome with its overnight run. However, about 80% of the information suggests that a devastating storm is on the way for the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast Sunday through Tuesday.
