The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Hermine to a
hurricane, with maximum sustained winds around 75 MPH. Hermine is
expected to make landfall just southeast of Tallahassee, FL overnight
tonight. The official forecast still tracks Hermine through the eastern
Carolinas, before emerging back out into the Atlantic near the Outer
Banks.
Both the American and Euro operational models track the
storm about 75 to 100 miles east of Ocean City, MD on Saturday, then stall the
storm through much of Sunday and part of Monday. At this point we are
fairly confident that the Eastern Shore will receive heavy rain, moderate winds,
and some minor/moderate coastal flooding. We are also fairly confident
that there will be NO flooding issues up the Chesapeake Bay as
the center of the storm should stay east of the Bay.
The least amount of confidence entails the amount of
rainfall along the I-95 corridor. Currently, the models suggest light
amounts of rain on Saturday for Baltimore and Philly, with a brief period of
heavy rain on Sunday as the storm wobbles a bit to the west. Areas west
of Baltimore and Philly have a better chance of receiving light rain, while
areas to the east have a better chance of receiving heavy rain this
weekend. Only a 50 to 60 mile shift in the track could mean a huge
difference in rainfall.
